The 2024 elections are over and the Democrats got an unimaginable drubbing. Not only did Trump ended up winning the Presidential elections, it has been a complete rout of the Democrats. Someone should have reminded them of Bill Clinton's dictum - "Its the economy, stupid". Instead, the Republicans ran on the economy platform and in spite of a rather robust American economy, the electorate handed the Democrats the Pink slip.
And what a defeat it was! Presidency, lost. Senate, lost. House, on the way to a loss. There wasn't face saving even in gubernatorial elections - Democrats handed a couple of states to the Republicans! What a disaster!
There are plenty of lessons in this election for the Democrats.
- This country is NOT ready for a woman President. That should not mean one should not try. But it does mean that the candidate better have a strong message and a strong presence. Vice President Harris did not have any visible and high value assignments until late. Thus, the doubt in many peoples mind was, could she do the job? If Democrats have the vision of putting a woman in the White House, it will require a concerted effort on the part of the political establishment. It will require Democrats to start by identifying a cadre of talented, educated, charismatic women and putting them in important and visible roles. And that cannot be a Nancy Pelosi or Maxine Waters. It needs to be someone in their 30s and 40s.
- Races cannot be won by changing horses mid cycle. The Democrat establishment didn't have a contingency plan for Biden not running, so they landed in this difficult predicament. Clearly there was a LOT of discussion and hand wringing, seen from the fact that Obama did not endorse the decision to change candidates until very late. If they had a plan, the decision could have been swift and the party machinery could have geared up quickly behind their candidate. The whole idea of contingency planning is to prepare for the unexpected. Thus Democrats would be well advised to have a contingency plan for every high stakes elections whether local, regional or national.
- Democrats cannot win elections if vast swaths of the country are not with them. Democrats have traditionally relied on liberal pockets in the major metropolitan areas on both coasts. Yes, these city people understand and appreciate the Democrat social and economic policies but the idea that a 'blue wall' alone will propel them to a win is a pipe dream. Democrats need to dig deeper to try and understand the needs of the heartlanders and southerners. Why is it that the social and economic policies of Democrats, which are geared towards helping the poor and middle class, do not appeal to these voters? Perhaps they are not speaking their language and the message is getting muddled. The rural, farm communities need their help as much as the city poor and middle class electorate and Democrats need to learn to speak their language if they have any chance of winning in future.
- Democrats have to learn to 'earn' the vote. It is a mistake to think of people as being monolithic. Just as not all men think alike, not all women think alike either, nor do all Blacks and Hispanics think in one way. If an issue like abortion could not unite women to vote for a woman President, nothing will. Instead, there needs to be sharper targeting of messages to large blocks of people. Eg, for women, it's the message of abortion to one block, family values to another, right to equal pay for another and perhaps a religious message for yet another.
Plenty more to learn from this debacle, but the main question now is what should we expect in the next four years? Here are my top four:
- America will take on a more isolationist tone. In Trump's mind, 'America First' is a financial strategy - a way to reduce the economic burden of International leadership on the United States. (truth be told, it is more a 'they are not paying their share' gripe than 'it is very costly to the US') This means United States, the world's largest economy, will pull back from contributing its share to NATO, UN, WHO etc that the world expects and needs. Expect US to abdicate responsibilities core to American leadership in the International arena, leading to a diminished stature on the world stage ceding the stage to the likes of China and Russia. Eventually this will lead to the US becoming unable to control the chaos and potentially instability that will undoubtedly ensue as rival countries like China, Russia, Iran seek to challenge the International norms. Let's start with the Middle East - a powder keg ready to burst. Or Taiwan - which will likely be contested over by China, come 2027.
- Income inequality will increase within the United States. The economic policies of this new administration is likely to have a long term negative impact on the poor, not the rich. The rich will likely get richer and poor will inevitably get poorer. Analysts are already predicted that the policies from tariffs to tax cut proposed by Trump will disproportionately impact the poor and middle class in a negative manner. 'Deporting' migrants en masse will result in significant reduction of labor force in industries like Agriculture and construction which employ large numbers of people in some of the lowest paying jobs. Overall it is likely to be a disaster for the very people who voted Trump in the office.
- Expect a devastating impact on environment. Regulations from 'clean water act' to 'clean air act' will be gutted. Climate deniers will gain an upper hand and efforts to move away from fossil fuels will take a back seat. Science will take a back seat to pseudoscience. Climate change? What climate change? Health care for all? Trump has tried to repeal Obama care and is likely to try again.
- Supreme Court will turn even more conservative as older justices seek retirement and are replaced by right wing ideologues. This will mean more conservative social policies and a literal reading of the constitution. Right to abortion - no chance. Gun control - no chance. Separation of Church and state - gutted.
It seems that none of the misdeeds of the previous four Trump years mattered to the electorate, nor did the insurrection of January 6. The masses were so mesmerized that all misdeeds were forgiven. The election disaster is a sad end to a very promising Biden era. I was truly hoping that we will have a Woman President this year. But that was not to be.
For now Democrats can only sit and watch. But the next election cycle is only two years away and the time to rebuild for it is NOW.
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